THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MAY NOT BE AS LOCKED IN AS MANY ASSUME
Most commentators seem to feel that the presidential election is locked in between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. That may not be correct. Joe Biden has little to no opposition in the Democratic Party primaries and delegate selections and Donnie Trump has only Nikki Haley to run against. In order to avoid having to spend time and money on primaries and caucuses both of those front running candidates have encouraged any and everyone else to get out of the race so that the two front runners can concentrate their efforts and money on each other. I believe it is too early to get into that position.
The commentators are certainly correct. The two front runners are the only ones piling up delegates and they have the most money and the most backing to continue the race. Hence, if you're betting your money it should go on the two of them and you can pick your favorite. However, it is only late February and there are any number of items that may occur to change the election.
To start with they are both of an advanced age. Both have shown some lapses in judgment as they offered their comments at various rallies and news briefings. Trump has made the ruler of North Korea the premier of China and has had numerous other glitches remembering people and geographic locations. His knowledge of history lacks on many levels, including his speech where he noted that the Continental Army during the American Revolution “took over the airports” from the British. He is also beyond correcting such gaffs as he is so focused on himself. He doesn't listen and analyze things he just wants to go over and over about how preeminent and wonderful he is. He is not going to get any better. Joe Biden similarly has a number of verbal goofs as he holds rallies and briefings and his age is not going to improve those miscues, although he does try to adjust his commentary as he searches for votes. At their age they could each succumb to a medical infirmity at most anytime. I am not casting dispersions I am just noting that their age is a factor.
In addition we have various matters going on in the United States and in the world which give the appearance of having the potential serious effect on each candidates appeal to the voting population. The question of women's medical choices and their ability to make their decisions between themselves and their doctor is creeping back into the news. This has been happening on a continual basis as the anti-abortion lobby is looking for new ways to restrict woman's decisions. While those who want to leave such decisions up to women are preparing to make this a major issue.
The many conflicts going on in the world and particularly the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts appear to have the potential to affect a number of voting blocs. The Republicans are shifting to favoring the position of Russia and blocking further aid to Ukraine. This could force Ukraine to succumb to Russian control. That would have major international repercussions.
In Gaza we have the Israelis busy destroying the Palestinian community in Gaza while they are adding innumerable constraints on the Palestinians in the West Bank and fighting to some degree with Hezbollah on their northern border. Although the United States has traditionally supported Israel and whatever actions it took, there is an ever-increasing number of people who believe that Israel has gone far beyond what it should have done as it retaliates in Gaza for the Hamas attack. The concept that Hamas is being punished has little bearing anymore. The net effect of Israeli actions is to destroy the Palestinian community in Gaza. The Israeli government has stated that it does not intend to allow a Palestinian government to take over in the Palestinian lands to allow a solution of a Palestinian state and an Israeli state to live as neighbors. There is a considerable block of voters in the United States who support a two-state solution. The Biden administration wants to play both sides of this issue and continues to support Israel but sends "messages" to the news media that it is pressuring the Israeli government to be more conscious of the civilians caught in this war. The administrations efforts to play both sides of this issue so it doesn't lose pro-Jewish votes or pro-Palestinian votes in the election is becoming silly.
Finally, there are the Trump lawsuits which are many. They've gone on so long that they're not even entertaining anymore. Donnie loves the attention and center of the spotlight and tries manipulate all those cameras when they're covering his appearances at court, but the results of the various cases are starting to offer negative messages to all but his most ardent fans. He was denied his claim of immunity in the DC Court of Appeals, a New York judge has issued judgments against he and his family to pay over $400 million in fines and he has also been hit with other judgements for $83 million and $5 million. Even for the Republicans who have been giving Trump a lot of money that is starting to get to be expensive and it is just to cover Trump's legal problems as opposed to winning elections. These different court cases have a great deal of potential to change the picture as the election season continues.
Given the factors mentioned above, together with others that I have not tried to itemize, there's a lot of potential for major adjustments in the views of the voting population. It seems to me there is a great logic in Nikki Haley continuing in the election in case any of these issues change the election dynamics. There is no Plan B for the Democrats. It would be good to see a third party such as "No Labels," which at least as near as I can tell is a centrist effort, to get a third party available for people to vote for. That effort could be more important than ever. For a number of years as the Republicans and Democrats moved themselves into deeper and deeper holes on the right and the left. They’ve done nothing to make themselves more competent and responsive to the American people. Now a third party may be essential in order to have a truly viable candidate available for voting in the fall. In the 2016 election we had a choice between two non-desirable candidates and the turnout was not only reduced but there were significant votes for third party candidates. There were also many write-in votes cast to avoid voting for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. Neither party has done anything to correct it's method of picking a quality candidate since then. We do not need to be left with that type of choice again.
Silence Dogood