WILL THERE BE A THIRD PARTY TO GIVE VOTERS ANOTHER CHOICE?

Super Tuesday primaries are completed and almost all the political analysis suggests that the result of this year's presidential election will be Joe Biden versus Donnie Trump. There is little reason to contest that. The results of the primaries and caucuses to date clearly suggest that those two candidates are in front and likely to be there when the nominating conventions occur in late summer. However, we have approximately 4 months left until the nominating conventions. That is a considerable period of time particularly with the number of ongoing events creating

uncertainty such as the Gaza war between Hamas and the Israeli government and Trumps trials. Further, we have two candidates who, according to traditional analysis, are too old to be running and at their age are subject to any number of medical issues arising which cause concern to the voters. Finally, the  primaries and polling of prospective voters suggest that there is a very large number, perhaps the majority of voters, that are ambivalent or opposed to both candidates and would like another choice. In spite of this the commentators and prognosticators are suggesting that a third party  candidacy is not likely to nor should enter the election race as it would be too difficult to defeat the Republican and Democratic candidates.

 

It seems to me that the circumstances of this year's presidential election contest suggest that this is a good year for a third party to try and enter the election. The two dominant political parties have completed enough of their selection process that each of their candidates is known. Neither has a popular candidate. A majority of the anticipated voters have told pollsters that they would prefer an alternative candidate from which to choose. Because of the power of the Republican and Democratic parties they have in the past and again this year are trying hard to keep any third party from making a foray into the election process. The ballot laws that have been passed in the different states make getting on the ballot difficult and expensive.

 

The only third party of significant size that appears to have contemplated coming into existence and entering onto the ballot currently goes by the name of " No Labels". It seems to be a centrist party. I understand that it is currently on the ballot in approximately 15 states and is making an effort to appear on all of the state ballots.  However, it is hard to tell just where that party stands as its efforts have not had a lot of public attention so far.  The group that formed this organization has actually been in existence for a number of years. If this effort proceeds it will need to finish its organizing and upgrade its efforts to get on all the ballots as well as initiate a strong marketing campaign to remind people that they wanted another choice.

 

Although earlier news suggested that the centrists had a convention scheduled for April that would seem to be too early to pick their candidates. Being a new party, the centrist may feel the need to get started so that it can get its name in front of the population soon and enter into the political discussions. They can certainly do that through a convention in April. That serves the purpose of telling people where they're coming from and where they are likely to go. Although there is always a feeling of urgency to get started it seems to me that it would be bad timing to name their candidates in April. The election season is already too long and to put the candidates out there in April would simply throw that presidential and vice-presidential pair into the shooting range for both traditional parties to pick on them for 7 months on the way to the election. It would make more sense to wait until late summer and create some suspense over who would be nominated and only allow 2 months to attack the newly named president and vice-presidential candidates. As to the question of whether or not that is enough time for these people to become known to the voting population, I don't think that is a concern. Given the modern news cycle which runs 24 hours a day and 7 days a week, as soon as their names are known they will be put forth everywhere. Further, waiting until late August or early September will allow the party a considerable period of time to not only prepare its marketing campaign for the nominated individuals but to enter the fray emphasizing why the population, which is already dubious of the Republican and Democratic candidates, should vote for a center candidate.

 

It seems to me that the information we have so far this year from the polling and the primaries also suggests that this is a year in which such a third party has a good chance of receiving enough votes to win the election. The polls show a desire for a different choice. Further, the primary elections show a consistent 15% to 40% of the Republicans who voted for someone else other than Trump. The Democratic primaries show a consistent vote of 10 to 15% of the Democrats who voted for someone or something other than Biden.  Further, most people don't vote in primaries anyhow. The primaries are made-up mostly of people who follow the two parties and feel some compunction to vote in the primary elections. What is interesting in the results is not that Trump won by large margins over Nikki Haley but that even though the Republicans knew that Trump was going to win, in each of those elections they voted in significant numbers for someone other than Trump. That anti Trump feeling is also why Haley was able to raise so much money for these primaries.

 

The same issue applies for those who did not vote for Biden in the primaries. But Republican voters who don't want Trump don't want to vote for Biden and Democratic voters who don't want to vote for Biden don't want to vote for Trump. Plus, those who aren't closely tied to either party  seem to want another choice.  This suggests that there is a large voting bloc seeking the middle. It seems like a good time to be a third party candidate.

 

I recently heard a night time discussion on a national radio program where the commentators suggested that it was not time for a third party attempt which was not likely to be successful and so the experts on the program were suggesting that a third party should not attempt to enter the election. That does not make sense to me. When I think back on other attempts to avoid the candidates promoted by the two dominate parties, two elections that come to mind. One is Ross Perot's third-party effort in 1992. It was a strong success until he decided to back out of the election in early summer when he was leading in the polls. His sole goal for entering the election seems to have been to defeat President George Bush for whom he had a strong dislike. Neither Bush nor Clinton was excessively popular and when Perot jumped in the voters quickly supported his effort. However Perot seemed to be concerned that he could even win the election which he did not want to do, he just wanted to defeat Bush, and when he felt that Bush  would lose he slacked off in his campaign, only to reappear late in the election but too late  to make up his lost ground.

 

The other election did not include a third party but a candidate who waited until late in the primaries to enter the race, yet he then went to the front of the line, won number of primaries in a row and was looking at a chance to win at the Democratic convention until he was assassinated after winning the California primary in June, 1968. Robert Kennedys was running against the national Democratic committee and its candidate Hubert Humphrey, Lyndon Johnson's vice president. The race never got to the convention, but it certainly seemed like Robert Kennedy was going to become the candidate of that party.

The same situation seems to exist today.

Actually this situation also existed in 2016 in terms of ambivalence to the two candidates but no third party appeared and the election was decided when an unusually large number of previous Obama voters did not show up to vote for Hillary Clinton in key states but voted for small third parties, such as the greens or libertarians. or didn't vote at all. and Trump won the election.

For a third party to enter into a national election takes a lot of money and organization. The effort to do that seems to have been initiated by at least one centrist party.  Although the prevailing wisdom is that a third party cannot win the election this year but at most it might give the election to Trump by taking votes from Biden. I believe that is not the case. There are a number of Republicans that don't want to vote for Trump but Biden is their only other choice. Many of those people do not vote for Democrats because of the years of identifying as Republican. Yet I believe this is a large voting bloc as shown by the people in the Republican primaries that did not vote for Trump. That group plus those that believe Biden should step down and not try to run for another term, and the independent voters that are not enticed by either candidate create a considerable block of voters for the third party. I also believe that these people were not going to vote for Biden anyway. They are either protesting having Biden run again, are conservative anti Trump Republicans but don't want to vote Democratic, or independents that are looking for another choice. This is a large number of voters. They don't want Trump, but they want somebody for whom to vote. I believe that is fertile ground for a centrist third party to make an attempt.

 

 

Silence Dogood

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